Wednesday, November 20, 2024

New Realities, Real and Imagined

 Comical headline of the week, from Reuters:  “Muslims who voted for Trump upset”


It is a no-brainer that Donald Trump has been pro-Israel, going so far as to suggest Bibi Netanyahu should finish the job quickly in Gaza. Were Palestinian and Arab Americans not listening? 


Sure, they were upset with the Democratic administration for its arming and enabling Israel to basically carpet bomb Gaza. But did they really think Trump would restrain Israel?


Apparently Trump’s picks of Israel-lovers/Palestinian-rights-deniers Marco Rubio to be secretary of state and Mike Huckabee to be ambassador to Israel was too much. 


So, after probably denying Kamala Harris votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and other states with Arab populations and voters who were upset with Democrats, reality is setting in. Sadly, the rest of the country has to suffer through their naivety.


Disillusionment will not be confined to the anti-Israel crowd. 


When their illegal migrant relatives are rounded up and deported regardless of how many years they have been in America, regardless of their legal American spouse or children, will Hispanics lament their vote for Trump?


When funding for preschool programs and school lunches dries up, will lower income voters accept their disappointment? 


When their health care and pharmaceutical coverage are weakened, will under- and uninsured Americans long for the days of Obamacare? 


When natural disasters become more frequent and more extreme, will the Trump federal government be sufficiently responsive? 


I avoided reading most analyses of the election, though this one from The Forward provided a common sense explanation of what happened November 5 as part of a chain of electoral cataclysms to left-leaning, even centrist, democratic governments the world over. Here’s a link: https://forward.com/opinion/676075/against-interpretation-trump-election-victory/


Politics is a ruthless business. Triumphant politicians are not inclined to give a life line to their defeated counterparts. Rather, if it is in their power, they will exert more pressure on the heel pushing their opponent’s neck into the mud. To the victor goes the spoils. 


I offer no suggestions for surviving Trump 2.0. But, as we confront the prospect of four more years of Trumpism, and at least two of a Republican controlled House and Senate, here are some predictions and thoughts that could make the future even more unsettling:


  • If Trump purges civil servants in government departments, how trustworthy will any “official” statements, such as the unemployment rate or GDP rate, be? Trump will be fulfilling George Orwell’s Ministry of Truth paradigm; 
  • Joe Biden is a traditionalist, an institutionalist. Trump is anti-establishment. An agent provocateur. A disruptor. Biden would never consider appointing anyone without their having prior experience in the field. Trump favors loyalty over competency. Biden plays by the norms. That’s why I doubt he will act as I and others have proposed to issue pre-emptive pardons to those public and private citizens who have “wronged” Trump. Meanwhile, Trump will pardon most if not all of those guilty of January 6 crimes; 
  • Thanks to the Supreme Court, Trump will enjoy immunity from any actions he individually carries out. But immunity, it seems to me, does not extend to his appointees, even if acting on direct orders from a president. Crassly put, if Trump shoots someone, say a suspected illegal migrant, he could claim executive privilege; if he orders an underling to shoot someone, the shooter would be required to show justifiable cause or be charged and tried. In other words, Trump’s sycophants better be certain the actions Trump wants them to carry out are legal; 
  • The GOP-controlled Senate will do what Democrats were too pussyfooted to enact, namely, killing the filibuster rule that requires at least 60 votes to pass most legislation. For Republicans, a simple majority vote would suffice; 
  • With the aid of the Republican Senate, Trump will expand the number of Supreme Court justices to 15, thus ensuring decades-long conservative majorities on the court;  
  • Assuming Trump does not impose himself for perpetuity on America in 2028, do not expect his legacy will be carried forward by JD Vance, his vice president. Rather, as dynasties are familial, not transferable, Trump will advance Donald Trump Jr. as his rightful successor; 
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will use the power of the purse to force communities across America to stop putting fluoride in municipal drinking water or risk losing federal funding for water-related projects; 
  • RFK Jr. and the secretary of Education will use the same monetary threat to pressure school systems to remove mandatory vaccinations; 
  • Federal funding will be denied any school system that permits participation in girls sports by any transgender student;
  • To appease the religious right, Trump will reverse legal distribution of reproductive medications that can terminate pregnancies.