However the imbroglio on Greenland turns out, several things are certain:
Europe no longer can count on Trump’s USA to have its back, protecting NATO members from Russian aggression. Even with a change in administration in 2029, doubts about America’s fidelity to NATO will persist. The Baltic States of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania might be next on Putin’s platter of vulnerable countries;
Similarly, Taiwan can give up the notion that America would help it resist a Chinese invasion. Trump might be able to bully European allies but China’s Xi Jinping is no paper tiger. All that stands between China’s absorption of Taiwan is Xi’s calculation of the most appropriate time to launch his “Greenland” version of island usurpation in the name of national defense;
Third, Israel no longer will enjoy favored nation status with Trump, indeed, with many Americans and their elected officials. Trump’s plan for Gaza will be a constant point of disagreement with Israel’s leadership. Trump does not take kindly to disagreement;
South America will be a playground for Trump to display his testosterone, threatening military punishment to any country that doesn’t kowtow to his whims. Expect U.S. military raids on drug manufacturing sites in any country south of our border where Trump suspects cartels are operating. Attacks will happen with or without the consent of local governments. What the attacks will not stop is China’s unyielding supply to cartels of ingredients to produce fentanyl that will saturate America with the killer drug. Trump is powerless to force Xi to act;
Trump’s obsession with expanding U. S. territory will continue with his push to incorporate Canada into his empire. National security and access to natural resources beneath the Arctic tundra motivate his undiplomatic appetite for conquest.
Since World War II presidents and their advisors have had an overly unfettered opinion about their power on the world stage. Mostly, they restrained openly displaying that power, though covert actions toppled governments presidents disliked and installed dictators more appealing to Washington insiders.
Trump has taken that conceit to the extreme, openly using tariffs and military threats as a cudgel to control friend and foe alike.
What happens after Trump is gone (through constitutional or natural causes)? Will foreign relations revert back to PT (pre-Trump) times or will his successors, from either party, feel empowered to follow in his footsteps, albeit, perhaps, in a less Tony Soprano style?
If Trump had any hope he would ever qualify for a real Nobel Peace Prize, he squandered that possibility by accepting the 2025 award from its winner, Venezuelan activist Maria Corina Machado. Machado presented the award in a blatant attempt to bribe Trump into publicly endorsing her to be Venezuela’s new leader rather than Nicolas Maduro’s vice president, long considered a corrupt politician.
Trump called Machado a nice lady but remained steadfast in backing the despot in place versus the populist he just met. In doing so, Trump was consistent with the maxim “honor among thieves,” not its corollary.
Putting aside Trump’s internal and external battles, no doubt the Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize committee did not take lightly Trump’s denigration of its award. Trump would truly have to earn the award by doing something extraordinary, like actually brokering a meaningful peace between Russia and Ukraine, or actually disarming Hamas and stopping Israel from usurping Palestinian land in the West Bank.
Of course, even if he miraculously welds a peace plan that lasts, the Nobel committee will deduct points for his termination of healthcare and humanitarian aid to African and other Third World countries, resulting in the death of hundreds of thousands, multiple more lives that have been lost in the wars that Trump thinks he stopped.
