Thursday, May 5, 2011

Leading Off

And now a break from our continuing coverage of the death of Osama bin Laden for an important update on the real or imagined fall of another iconic leader, Derek Jeter.

Ever since the late Bob Sheppard no longer could announce his name in person at Yankee Stadium, Je-tuh’s productivity has waned. A recording of Sheppard’s mellifluous voice just hasn’t generated the same impact, much like the current Je-Tuh is nothing like the Jeter of a few years ago. Last year Derek batted a career low .270 for a full season.

Baseball begins anew in the spring, when hope springs eternal. Not only did Yankee fans, including moi, hope they would rebound and win the World Series this year, but we also longed for a return to norm by our team captain, our Captain America. Yet, 108 at bats into the season, roughly 15% of his expected plate appearances, Jeter, a career .313 hitter, was hitting a mere .250, with no home runs and just two extra base hits among his 27 safeties. He has just six runs batted in.

Lots of people are calling for manager Joe Girardi to move Jeter down in the lineup, away from the lead-off spot. They point to his anemic .308 on-base percentage (OBP), the lowest of any starter save Jorge Posada’s deathly .247 level. Girardi has resisted.

Possibly with good reason. Girardi’s options are limited. Ideally, your lead-off hitter should get on base a lot, should work the count by taking lots of pitches, should be a good base runner, should not strike out a lot, should have some pop in his bat, at least for hitting doubles in the gap and the occasional home run. This year Jeter had been barely adequate, not good, at most of those areas. He does have the fewest strikeouts among the starters, and is near the bottom of those who have grounded into double plays.

Girardi has three possible choices to replace Jeter as lead-off batter: Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson.

Gardner would be ideal for the top spot, but he’s batting only .213, with a .337 OBP. Though hitting better lately, until he’s more consistent at the plate, Gardner will bat ninth. Swisher has a higher OBP at .345, but he’s batting only .223. He strikes out more often than Jeter, doesn’t run the bases as well, has fewer hits and just two more extra base hits.

Granderson’s .260 batting average is nothing to get excited about, either. Nor is his .318 OBP. He has excited everyone with his power prowess. Eight of his 26 hits have gone over the fence. Another four have been doubles, along with a pair of triples. But he’s struck out twice as often as Jeter. On the other hand, Granderson is averaging 4.42 pitches an at-bat, higher than Garnder’s 4.40 and 21% higher than Jeter’s 3.64.

The statistics don’t point to an obvious course of action. It would appear if Girardi were to make any move the most sense would be to put Granderson at the top of the batting order, followed by either Jeter or Swisher.

Jeter is not expected to be in the lineup today because of a slight hip injury. We’ll have to wait and see if Girardi and Jeter agree on which spot in the lineup is best for Jeter and the team.