Friday, October 16, 2020

Day 221 Nat'l Emergency: Election Predictions

Let’s talk Trump.

I mean, why do I write so much about him? If he ever does leave the presidency, will my blog dry up from lack of material to write about? Joe Biden could not possibly be as entertaining or stimulating. Normalcy isn’t as compelling as demagoguery. Or egotism. Or venality. The fiction spellbinder, even one with a limited vocabulary of words like “beautiful,” “tremendous,” and “terrific,” is more intriguing than a truth teller.

I may be underestimating the American public. Seems a majority of those who tuned in to Donald Trump’s and Biden’s dueling town hall meetings Thursday night opted for sanity and civility, not to mention in-depth understanding and familiarity with issues and legislation that could affect their lives. 

Biden’s ABC town hall drew more viewers than Trump’s NBC sit-down which was also broadcast on MSNBC and CNBC, according to Nielsen. Biden drew 14.1 million viewers compared to a combined 13.1 million who watched Trump answer questions from voters and parry with moderator Savannah Guthrie. 

Maybe, just maybe, the electorate is tired of Trump’s tirades and the incompetent way he has handled the coronavirus pandemic.

Trivia Quiz: What famous writing made history in 1776? A clue or two: No, it was not the Declaration of Independence; yes, it was written in English. (Answer at the bottom of this blog.)

Election Results: I just filled out my predictions for an election night sweepstakes my friends Ken and Jane conduct every four years. Last time I picked Hillary Clinton as the winner. 

I am sticking with the Democrat. I predict Biden will secure 53% of the popular vote compared to 45% for Trump, the remaining 2% going to Kanye West and other fringe candidates.

Biden will garner 286 Electoral College votes versus Trump’s 252. 

In other words, the country will remain deeply divided. 

The House of Representatives will see a slight increase in Democratic members to 245. Significantly, the Senate will flip Democratic with a 52-48 majority.

Consequently, a President Biden will have two years to effect change before the risk of losing control of the Senate confronts his agenda. If he’s going to pack the Supreme Court with at least four liberal justices he and Congress will have to act swiftly before Mitch McConnell  (yes, I think he will win reelection) may again be in a position to stymy Democratic nominations to federal courts, including the Supreme Court. 

To be on the safe side, he really needs to add six Supreme Court justices in case any of the three current liberals leaves the bench in the third or fourth year of his presidency.

The sweepstakes questionnaire did not ask about presidential pardons, but I suspect Trump, win or lose, will issue quite a few pardons before January 20, 2021, to Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort and anyone else he feels has been wrongly prosecuted for actions involving his 2016 campaign. Trump might also explore the validity of pardoning himself of any crime, such as tax evasion. 

(Answer to the trivia question: It was Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations.”)