Conjuring Up a Trump-Putin October Surprise

An October surprise is quite common before a November election as candidates try last minute tactics to sway voters. 

Don’t be surprised if the following transpires: Donald Trump will shortly declare that as a result of his diplomacy with Russia, Vladimir Putin has agreed to suspend attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population plus its power and heat networks. In exchange, Ukraine would stop strikes against targets inside Russia. 

A triumph of Trumpian statesmanship, Fox News and his media and political champions will proclaim. A first step towards a complete cease fire and peace agreement. Perhaps it will sway sufficient undecided voters to return Republican control of the House and Senate. 

But what I suspect will happen after the votes are tallied is that Putin will reignite his inhumane assault after a false-flag attack on a Russian power plant that he attributes to Ukraine. Putin’s ultimate goal is the annihilation of an independent Ukraine.

Trump will feign surprise but he will have been in on the ruse Putin, his puppet master, was going to perpetrate. True to form, Trump will blame Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy for sabotaging the truce. 

Far-fetched? Perhaps. But Trump cozies up to autocrats while assailing democratic leaders of all nations.  

I hope I am wrong. But Trump has not earned my trust through his actions or rhetoric. So I am left to my imagination to prepare for his next assault on decency. And now, so are you. 

Culling the News for Interesting Times

Check out the byline of The New York Times obituary of Mike Ditka, the ultimate Chicago Bears player and coach (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/09/sports/mike-ditka-dead.html?unlocked_article_code=1.I1E.5W2J.1TZpgIUYjmLg&smid=url-share). For those unable or too lazy to open the link, the byline belonged to Barry Bearak. No, that was not a typo. His name actually contained the sequential letters B-e-a-r. 

I’m above average: At least as it pertains to banana consumption. The Times reported the average American consumes 80 bananas a year ( https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/12/business/economy/bananas-iran-war.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share ). 

My breakfasts “usually” are a mixture of grapes, blueberries, the occasional strawberry, cashews, almonds, raisins, dried cranberries, figs, low fat plain Greek yogurt and honey. And a banana. When I say “usually,” I’m talking upwards of 300 breakfasts a year, taking into account vacations and the infrequent times I have eggs, French toast, or hot cereal in the morning. 

These days my breakfasts are much healthier than when I was growing up. In high school they usually encompassed four Oreos dipped in a glass of milk. 

Let The Sun Shine In: In 16 days (November 1) Daylight Savings Time ends. Darkness will begin earlier in the afternoon, offset by an earlier sunrise. 

Despite perennial debate on the value of DST becoming permanent throughout the country, Congress is not ready to legislate a change. But if recent history is any guide, who needs Congress? Donald Trump, a vocal advocate for permanent DST, could simply mandate it and claim it’s a matter of national security and defense. 

If logic informs you it isn’t, don’t be a stickler. Trump has claimed national security and defense for any number of actions his administration has implemented. If he orders government agencies to run their departments under a DST clock our national security and defense would truly be endangered. 

Election Truths: If we have learned anything about our elections over the last 10 years, two truths have emerged. 

First, polling is an inexact science. One cannot rely on them, nor be complacent. Only voting, not relying on others to do our patriotic duty, can affect your preferred outcome. 

Second, Trump and his MAGA gang will challenge the veracity of any result they dislike. 

Forewarned is forearmed. Get out and vote.

Robot Fear: it may be years before robots turn into terminators. But they apparently have already mastered the “art” of mashing. 

German police have arrested two  teenagers in Cologne who programmed their robot to grope a teenage girl. “Investigators said the roughly four-foot-tall robot approached her from behind, grabbed her buttocks, and made thrusting movements against her,” the dailyvoice.com reported. 

Humanity might not be coming to an end soon, but civility’s days surely are numbered. 

Politics Is Not a Game of Limbo Dance: Speaking of bad taste, how low can Trump go? 

Apparently we have not reached the depth of his immorality as evidenced by his circulating AI images of himself wrestling and hugging a tiger just days after an Amur tiger killed a mentally troubled man who jumped into his pen at a northern England nature preserve. 

My sensibilities keep me from providing a link to Trump’s repulsive video.

A Nail and a Screw Determine Military Success; Updarting the McConnell Rule

Who knew Benjamin Franklin was prescient some 270 years ago about modern day warfare? 

In his 1758 edition of Poor Richard’s Almanac, Franklin included the following ditty:

“For the want of a nail the shoe was lost,

For the want of a shoe the horse was lost,

For the want of a horse the rider was lost,

For the want of a rider the battle was lost,

For the want of a battle the kingdom was lost,

And all for the want of a horseshoe-nail.”

The limerick has been ascribed to the fate of King Richard III of England. In August 1485 he lost the Battle of Bosworth Field, and his life, when his horse stumbled and threw him from the saddle because a horsehoe had only three, not four, nails keeping it in place. Richard’s death marked the end of the 331-year reign of the Plantagenet dynasty. The victorious Tudors assumed the royal title.

It’s the little things that can matter as much, if not more, than the big things when analyzing why a plan or a battle might go awry. 

To wit—The New York Times carried an article on the precision ball screw, a seemingly prosaic screw that is key to the successful operation of Patriot missiles, aircraft and humanoid robots (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/26/business/ball-screws-military-production.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share). 

The thrust of the article is that there is a dire need for more precision ball screws than are currently being produced, a condition compounded by our exhaustive use of military hardware during the war with Iran. Replacing expended equipment will take years, leaving America vulnerable for completion of the current conflict and initiation of future actions. 

It’s another example, a la the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran or attacks by Houthis along the Red Sea, thus choking off the free-flow of oil from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, of Trump-Hegseth being blindsided by events they did not anticipate or appreciate before embarking on their war with Iran. 

Iran and its proxies cannot claim they vanquished America and Israel. But they could justifiably claim victory if, after negotiations, they survive intact, more in control than before of two waterways vital to the world economy, and still in possession of enriched nuclear material. 

Updating The McConnell Rule: With fingers crossed that Democrats will seize majority control of the Senate in January after results of next month’s midterm elections are certified, the future composition of the Supreme Court and lower federal courts hangs in the balance. 

If Democrats prevail they will no doubt invoke the McConnell rule to deny Donald Trump any possibility to have nominees to any federal court brought before the Senate for confirmation. It will be payback for McConnell’s reluctance to have the Senate consider Merrick Garland’s Supreme Court nomination by Barack Obama to succeed Antonin Scalia during the last year of his presidency. 

To be sure Trump would still have not one but two years in office. However, Democrats would be foolish to cede him the power to pack the courts with more conservative decision makers during those last two years. 

To circumvent Democratic restraints Trump might pressure Justices Alito and Thomas to retire from the Supreme Court in time for him to nominate successors, pushing them through the way he secured Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s seat on the court in the waning days of his first term while Republicans still controlled the Senate. Trump would have from early November to early January to effect his judicial onslaught.

The bottom line is politics will play an even greater role, at least on the surface, for all federal court nominations after November 3. 

When Will Normalcy Return to our Government?

Imagine, if you will, a Democrat is sworn in January 20, 2029, as our next president. It doesn’t matter who it is. Man or woman. Progressive or moderate. Just that he or she is a Democrat. 

Will normalcy return to the Oval Office, or will an imperial presidency continue? Will we continue to be ruled by fiat or will representative government come back in vogue? 

It’s too easy, too naive, to believe all will be returned to pre-Trump sanity, be it the Biden years of 2020-2024 or Obama time 2009-2016. For, in truth, Barack and Joe exercised many of the same repressive powers Donald has. They just wore velvet gloves that softened the blows. They were not in-your-face, my-way-IS-the-highway executives. At least not publicly.

But what one president usurps as a rightful power of the office, especially if it is confirmed by the Supreme Court, is not lightly relinquished by a successor, ceded back voluntarily or through acts of Congress. 

Let’s be honest. To undo Trump’s assault on our democracy and system of government a Democratic president would have to take executive actions that would go well beyond pre-Trump norms. A third of the country, at least, believes in the unitary executive exemplified by Trump. They might not like a Democratic president’s actions but it would not be unexpected. Each step of the way back would be challenged in court. 

But even before a new president will work overtime to erase Trump’s excesses, the current pox on democracy will have two more years to inflict damage on our country regardless who wins the midterm elections. Even if Democrats win both the House and Senate and initiate impeachment proceedings Trump will retain his power to destroy until a conviction is passed. And let’s not forget that removing Trump elevates JD Vance to the Oval office. 

From a Democratic administration in 2029 we can expect loads of criminal investigations into actions by Trump and members of his team. Of course, prior to leaving office Trump will do what Biden did. He will issue blanket pardons to family members and all the hacks that carried out his priorities. Chief among them—Stephen Miller.  

A Democratic president will issue executive order after executive order removing Trump’s name from any federal building. He or she will reverse Trump’s draconian measures that targeted immigrants, environmental laws, free trade policies, foreign relations, health care, education, and civil rights issues, to name just a few areas Trump has hollowed out America’s exceptionalism. 

He or she won’t open up our borders but will sharply curtail ICE’s activities. 

Perhaps most calming to our national mood, the next president will not govern by tweet. He or she will restore dignity to the White House, to our standing on the global stage. He or she will cultivate alliances with democracy-loving nations, and not cozy up to dictators in China, Russia, North Korea and their proxies.

As legal battles ensue, I don’t put it past a conservative majority Supreme Court reversing itself on executive branch powers if doing so would stymie a Democratic president. But I would like to believe those justices have some scruples and respect for precedent they themselves set. 

Having no doubt traumatized you with my dark forecast let me remind you, our country is resilient. We survived a Civil War, two world wars sandwiching a Depression, the lasting heritage of racial discrimination, a Cold War, the Vietnam War, and Trump’s assault on our country. We can recover. We will recover. We must recover.  

November 3 is the first step to recovery.