The Jewish world is understandably apoplectic about a survey that suggests half of all Americans ages 18-24 support Hamas over Israel.
Troubling though it is, the survey should not be seen as definitive because the sample size of those 18-24 probably is too small to make an authoritative, projectable finding. The total survey of all ages had 2,034 respondents, a good number for national projections. But the number of those 18-24 can be extrapolated as 386, and any portion of that figure would be far less than what is needed to be nationally projectable.
For more than 20 years my magazine, Chain Store Age, published monthly consumer polls, gauging intentions to buy specific products or their preferences for which store to shop in and why. To provide meaningful data our surveys, done through reputable research firms including Gallup, America’s Research Group and Leo J. Shapiro and Associates, polled sufficient consumers to extract projectable information.
I learned from these surveys that polling is part science, part art. The finer one parses the responses, the smaller the sample size. Consequently, the less projectable the data becomes.
Bias can also come from the manner in which data is collected. The Harvard CAPS/Harris survey in question was conducted on line December 13-14 by The Harris Poll and HarrisX among registered voters (click on this link for a copy of the questions and results: https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/HHP_Dec23_KeyResults.pdf. Multiple attempts to contact Harvard CAPS proved unsuccessful).
A key question in the survey asked: “Do you think that the long-term answer to the Israel-Palestinian dispute is for Arab states to absorb the Palestinians, for there to be two states, Israel and Palestine, or for Israel to be ended and given to Hamas and the Palestinians?”
The responses: 60% opted for a two-state solution; 21% preferred Arab states absorb the Palestinians; 19% chose the end of Israel and the land be given to Hamas and the Palestinians.
That 19% is of the total survey sample of all ages. In other words, 386 people. Of those 386, I estimated142 were ages 18-24 who favored Israel’s elimination, hardly a figure on which to extrapolate a national trend, especially when one considers other responses that showed a wide approval of Israel.
For example, three-quarters of the total sample said Hamas was responsible for starting the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and for putting civilians in harm’s way.
In addition, 76% of those 18-24 said they “believe that Hamas attackers on October 7th committed rapes and other crimes against women.”
No doubt, many young people are sympathetic to residents of Gaza because they have incurred thousands of casualties from the intense Israeli bombing in response to the October 7 attack which killed 1,200 Israelis, wounded several thousand and resulted in some 250 hostages being taken to Gaza. But equally doubtless is their lack of knowledge and understanding about the complex history of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the true intentions of Hamas, both vis-a-vis Jews/Israelis and how Hamas governs Palestinians in Gaza without free elections, free speech, gender equality, and other democratic values.
Ron E. Hassner, a Berkeley political science professor, wrote in The Wall Street Journal that a survey he commissioned of 250 students across America found many of those sympathetic to the Palestinian slogan “From the river to the sea” changed their minds after learning some basic facts about the Mideast conflict.
“There’s no shame in being ignorant,” Hassner opined, “unless one is screaming for the extermination of millions,” ending his article thusly: “Those who hope to encourage extremism depend on the political ignorance of their audiences. It is time for good teachers to join the fray and combat bias with education”
From Which River to Which Sea?
Informing the public, especially young people, about the historical record is a much desired objective, not just for educators but also for social commentators. Take a few minutes to listen to Bill Maher’s essay from the New Rules segment of his December 15 HBO show “Real Time with Bill Maher:” https://www.youtube.com/watch?
